"Efficiency" in Government, might not be What is Good for Society
Is Efficiency the Ultimate Way to Run A Country? PLUS a 2025 Forecast
I read a Substack recently out of Canada, “The Line”, and the author Melanie Paradis1 described having to, for health reasons, rely only on baby formula to feed her new born. Moreover, she was not happy having to rely on American-produced baby formula. I paraphrase her, but she lamented that not a single drop of infant formula fed to Canadian babies is produced in Canada. She talked at length about how a Chinese company might begin to produce formula (in Canada) and sell some of it in Canada, though largely with an intention to export most of what they produce, using Canadian milk, to China, where Chinese babies can consume the formula.
Now, in a perfect world, people should not have to burden themselves about where their baby formula comes from, shouldn’t have to be nationalistic or anything, but there’ve been many instances of contaminated milk and formula. Supposedly, the world has become safer and more cooperative, and we supposedly can trust each other. Or at least in “Liberal” countries (Liberal in economic terms), people would not have to worry, we once had NAFTA for North America, the EU for Europe and the UK (back then). Neither of these things guaranteed your safety, governments rarely can. Now that we have careless, selfish vulgarians taking over the US government in just a few weeks, I would imagine we can depend even less on the government to protect people. We even have political dilettantes like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy wanting to make a government that they know next to nothing about more efficient.
Efficient means performing in the best possible manner at the least cost, but best possible manner precedes least cost. Efficiency means you do what you are supposed to do. In less developed countries people die from eating things like tainted cooking oil or contaminated baby formula. It happens much less in, say, G-7 or EU countries. In developed countries we trust: 1) Companies and brands; and 2) Governments as in our own government or a better foreign government.
In 2022, there was a shortage involving American infant formula produced by AbbottLabs in the US. Formula production is a very concentrated business - about four companies produce in the US with Abbot producing over 60%. Depending on whose version of events you believe, several children died from problems with the Abbot formula, either because it was bad (Abbott maintains no bad milk product was ever distributed) or because parents were watering down the formula or feeding too-young kids other foods like cow’s milk. I always think of milk and milk products in an idyllic way, all dairy is local, even delivered by the milkman. It that efficient? Maybe not, but it is hard to think that a bunch of Amazon and UPS trucks are that much more efficient that the Milkman’s trucks one used to see.
Food really it is huge business, one that governments get heavily involved in. Most US milk production is heavily concentrated in states like Wisconsin and New York, states much like their Canadian neighbors. People like to think their milk is better than other people’s, and sometimes they are probably right. Canada does not want to import milk from the US unless it is somehow “non-GMO”, but mostly this was an excuse for Trump and Trudeau to get into a tariff tiff, a regular pissing match, back in 2020 in Trump’s first term. Despite what any politician says (or businessman), most restrictions and regulation of milk has been about making farmers and milk distributors get more money. It is not usually about what is best for the consumer. There are still US/Canada tariffs and limits on dairy trade.
In America we produce milk that in some cases gets poured on the ground. In Canada perfectly good milk gets poured out. Both countries over-produce milk, with government encouragement. It is really hard to talk about making government more efficient without talking about making a society more efficient. We supposedly waste a lot of money on health-care in this country and the government pays for most of that (and no, insurance companies are not the reason healthcare is so expensive here.) Still, if healthcare is such a ripe ground to save money, you’d think the boys in the DOGE2 would have health high on their list. Instead, Trump appoints brain-worm infected, raw-milk drinking, RFK Jr.3 to run the HHS agency.
Efficiency means you do what you are supposed to do, well
It is important not to confuse “inefficiency” arguments with something you simply don’t like. Maybe you don’t like Foreign Aid, some of that money is probably wasted since it was given away. Military Aid is a different story. Maybe it helps us to give military aid to certain foreign countries, it makes us a stronger country, or means we don’t have to commit to a confrontation. Governments all over the world have crazy sounding laws. Japanese want to protect their rice farmers - maybe they want their rice to taste a certain way, or maybe it reflects the way the country sees itself. Such regulations usually reflect what the society wants. America is a big, rich country whose government spends money on various things. We’re a big rich country that wants our government to do many things. We are also a 50/50 country politically. Be very suspicious of people who claim to be making arguments based strictly on efficiency.
2025 and Beyond Economic Forecast
The stock market (at least 2 of 3 major averages) will have a 10-15% correction within 100 days of Donald Trump’s Inauguration. (This may have already started.)
The S&P 500 index will have at least one 30% decline during Trump/Vance’s term in office.
We will have a recession and unemployment will exceed 5% for at least a year during Trump/Vance’s term in office.
US inflation will not fall to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target during Trump/Vance’s term in office.
I do not attribute these probable future events directly to the new incoming administration. (Or a new Federal Reserve team.) The stock market and most financial assets are in a bubble now and consumer spending is outsized. There will also be continued climate and political deterioration worldwide. Happy New Year!
The Department of Government Efficiency - DOGE - does not actually exist yet other than an idea the President-elect shares with a few others, and there is no law contemplating such an agency, but Musk and Ramaswamy are busy working there, at least on social media.
R.F. Kennedy Jr. has detailed to the press that he got a parasitic worm in his brain during overseas travels. It was discovered, apparently, while Kennedy was seeking treatment for suspected mercury poisoning. Mr. Kennedy apparently has a long history of bizarre outdoorsmanship involving dead (wild) animals, and is also no stranger to mind-altering substances.