The Madness of Angry King Donald
Trump's Tariffs are Not "Reciprocal" and Will Not Usher in Prosperity
In my post of January 1, 2025 (Titled “Efficiency in Government may not be What is Good for Society”) I finished the piece with the following predictions:
2025 and Beyond Economic Forecast
The stock market (at least 2 of 3 major averages) will have a 10-15% correction within 100 days of Donald Trump’s Inauguration. (This may have already started.)
The S&P 500 index will have at least one 30% decline during Trump/Vance’s term in office.
We will have a recession and unemployment will exceed 5% for at least a year during Trump/Vance’s term in office.
US inflation will not fall to the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target during Trump/Vance’s term in office.’
Well, we already had a correction (defined as a 10% drop in the major indices (S&P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ) two weeks ago. The prices of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks were (2 weeks ago) down by 20%, a “bear market”. The price of Tesla was down almost 50%. I, sadly, am fairly confident that the other three predictions made above will come to pass.
I normally would not attribute short term changes in the economy or markets to a single political figure. However, given Donal Trump’s “Liberation Day” insanity of April 2, 2025, it is all on him now, and on his mindless supporters. The stock market tanked. There will be higher prices, there will be job losses, our economy will shrink, and people will be hurt for some time. Perhaps there will be blood. It’s not all about the stock market, but it is about disrupting people’s lives.
Firstly, I would encourage people not to refer to these as “Reciprocal Tariffs”. If a very poor country like Cambodia already had tariffs on US goods at a 49% tax rate, a “reciprocal tariff” would be the US putting 49% tariffs on Cambodia’s exports to the US. The tariffs that Angry Donald announced are simply because we buy more from Cambodia than they sell to us. I have noticed some in the media already using the term “reciprocal tariffs.” Don’t fall for this! All authoritarian governments hide what they are doing behind “new-speak”. Don’t be a toady, don’t call them reciprocal tariffs!
Now, you may ask yourself, why would a seemingly successful businessman who has managed to - barely - get himself elected president twice, gut tens, perhaps hundreds of thousands of vital Federal jobs? And then slap tariffs on any country with a trade surplus with the US simply because they have a trade surplus. (Actually he slapped tariffs on countries where we have a trade surplus, we sell them more than we buy from them!) There is nothing “reciprocal” about it. There is a phrase: “Resentment is drinking poison and hoping the other person will die.” Trump is an angry old man and believes that the US has been “screwed” by the rest of the world. Now some countries (China) have used unfair and illegal practices to gain on us. But Laos, Mauritius, Sri Lanka? We are the richest country in the world. We have in fact entered deals and signed laws that allowed past trade practices. President Trump’s first administration signed - and the Congress approved - the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement, which replaced NAFTA. Trump is now abrogating that treaty, basically breaking a law he created. He has broken many laws. The man’s word means nothing, and consequently the USA’s word means nothing. We are trying to weasel out of NATO. In this column I have made a point of saying Climate Change is already here. Well guess what, Autocratic Fascism is already here in the USA. We need to topple it!